2016年经济学人 德国能源转型 适时求变(下)

 

Renewables can depress wholesale¹ prices, eg, when the sun creates a midday jolt². This discourages investors³ in the flexible, gas-powered generation needed to provide backup for windless, cloudy days. “The market dynamics⁴ are completely destroyed,” says Peter Terium, boss of RWE, one of the big four. There is talk of paying generators⁵ to offer capacity, not supply power. But such payments would add another subsidy⁶ distortion to the market.

可再生能源会压低批发电价，比如在正午太阳当头时。这也从灵活性上令投资者犹豫不决，因为天然气发电器需要在无风的阴天里提供后备支援。“市场动态完全被破坏了”，四大电力公司之一的RWE老总Peter Terium说。也有人讨论，电力公司有偿提供产能，而非电力。但这样的支付方式会被市场扭曲理解为政府的另一项补贴。

The 20 billion national-grid⁷ plan is another macro-project meant to channel micro-level exuberance⁸. It assumes that the biggest need will be to supply northern wind power to southern and western consumers. Yet if so, perhaps renewables should be tempered elsewhere. “We have to synchronise⁹ infrastructure¹⁰ and renewables”, by allowing new wind and solar projects only where the grid can take delivery of what they produce, says Stephan Kohler, head of the German Energy Agency. Upgrading the grid, to beyond Germany as well as within it, would reduce waste and the risk of instability.

200亿的国家电网计划是另一项用来调节微观层面繁荣发展的宏观项目。该计划认为，当务之急是将北方的风电输送至南部、西部的消费者家中。倘若如此，其他地区的可再生能源理应有所缓解。我们只能批准那些设立在电网覆盖范围内的新风电、太阳能项目，“我们不得不以此来协调基础设施同可再生能源的关系”，德国能源机构主席Stephan Kohler表示。升级德国境内外的电网将会减少资金浪费，降低不稳定的危险。

But the vision is contested. Expansion of the grid has been thwarted¹¹ by bureaucrats’ inertia¹², politicians’ foot dragging and activism by those who hate transmission masts as much as they do nuclear power. Even upgrades to existing lines can mobilise opposition¹³, as in Quickborn, south of Niebull. Hard-core decentralists deny that power must be transmitted over long distances. “You can put the grid development plan directly in the bin,” says Matthias Willenbacher of Juwi, a big builder of solar and wind projects. Bavaria’s aspirations¹⁴ encourage such hopes. When the federal government tried to speed up cuts in the feed-in tariff¹⁵ for solar power, several states put up a fight, forcing a partial retreat. The renewables lobby, like the industrial one, demands stable investment conditions. Solar power will be competitive without subsidies¹⁶ by 2020, the solar lobby insists.

但这种想法颇具争议。对于扩张电网，懒惰的官员阻扰之，政客们拒绝合作，激进主义者们厌恶核能，却也同样憎恨输电杆。即便是升级现有电路也会引起抗议，就如南尼必尔的quickborm发生的那样。顽固不化的分散主义者对电力必须长途传输的说法予以否认。大型太阳能、风能项目建造商Juwi的Matthias Willenbacher 说，“你可以直接把电网发展计划扔垃圾箱里”。巴伐利亚州“自给自足”的愿望鼓励了这种希望。当联邦政府试图加速降低太阳能发电的强制入网价格时，一些州挺身而出反抗之，最终迫使政府作出部分退让。和工业游说团一样，可再生能源游说团需要稳定的投资环境。太阳能游说团坚称，截至2020年底，即便是没有政府补贴，太阳能发电也会颇具竞争力。

Germany is groping for a mix of top-down direction-setting and bottom-up buy-in for its Energiewende to work. The federal government may limit foes¹⁷ of transmission projects to one court challenge. But consultation¹⁸ with citizens is vital, reckons Mr Matthiessen. TenneT, which operates the grid in Schleswig-Holstein, wants to extend the wind park idea to the transmission network, offering stakes in a line along the west coast. But Mr Bockholt, Niebull’s mayor, sounds a warning: Schleswig-Holstein’s plans to harvest its wealth of wind will soon “reach the limits of what is tolerable”.

为保证能源转型能起作用，德国正在探索一条自上而下发布号令与自下而上逐级买进的混合路子。联邦政府有权向法庭对转换项目的妨碍者提出异议。但Matthiessen先生认为，同市民商量才是最重要的。运行席勒斯威格-霍尔斯坦州电网的TenneT公司，想将风力电场的理念延伸为电力传输系统，就在向市民出手西海岸沿岸一条电路线的股权。但是尼必尔市市长Bockholt先生对此发出警告：席勒斯威格-霍尔斯州的丰富电力收获计划将很快“达到可承受的极限。”

It is hard to think of a messier and more wasteful¹⁹ way of shifting from fossil and nuclear fuel to renewable energy than the one Germany has blundered into. The price will be high, the risks are large and some effects will be the opposite of what was intended. Greenhouse-gas emissions²⁰ are likely to be higher than they would have been for quite a while to come. But that does not mean the entire enterprise will fail. Politicians cannot reinvent the Energiewende on the run, but they can stay a step ahead of the risks and push back against the costs—and they are beginning to do so. In the end Germany itself is likely to be transformed.

在将矿物燃料、核燃料向可再生能源转换上，德国已经误打误撞的走出了自己的路子，很难再想出一个比德国的更棘手、更耗资的方式。转型价格将高居不下，转型风险巨大、而有些地方也可能事与愿违。在未来很长一段时间内，温室气体排放量极有可能比预期中要高。但是这并不意味着能源转型这项事业将崩溃瓦解。能源转型计划已付诸实行，政客们虽无力改造，却能像德国人正开始做的那样，预测风险，并压缩开支。最终可能发生转变的或许是德国自身。

1 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

2 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

5 generators   

n.发电机，发生器( generator的名词复数 )；电力公司

参考例句：

• The factory's emergency generators were used during the power cut. 工厂应急发电机在停电期间用上了。
• Power can be fed from wind generators into the electricity grid system. 电力可以从风力发电机流入输电网。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 subsidy   

n.补助金，津贴

参考例句：

• The university will receive a subsidy for research in artificial intelligence.那个大学将得到一笔人工智能研究的补助费。
• The living subsidy for senior expert's family is included in the remuneration.报酬已包含高级专家家人的生活补贴。

7 grid   

n.高压输电线路网；地图坐标方格；格栅

参考例句：

• In this application,the carrier is used to encapsulate the grid.在这种情况下，要用载体把格栅密封起来。
• Modern gauges consist of metal foil in the form of a grid.现代应变仪则由网格形式的金属片组成。

8 exuberance   

n.丰富；繁荣

参考例句：

• Her burst of exuberance and her brightness overwhelmed me.她勃发的热情和阳光的性格征服了我。
• The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。

9 synchronise   

n.同步器；v.使同时发生；使同步

参考例句：

• As they fly, they synchronise their wing beats. 飞行时，它们翅膀的拍打是同步的。
• The apps will synchronise with your ipad and download the latest content automatically.这些程序会与你的ipad同步，并自动下载最新的内容。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

11 thwarted   

阻挠( thwart的过去式和过去分词 )； 使受挫折； 挫败； 横过

参考例句：

• The guards thwarted his attempt to escape from prison. 警卫阻扰了他越狱的企图。
• Our plans for a picnic were thwarted by the rain. 我们的野餐计划因雨受挫。

12 inertia   

adj.惰性，惯性，懒惰，迟钝

参考例句：

• We had a feeling of inertia in the afternoon.下午我们感觉很懒。
• Inertia carried the plane onto the ground.飞机靠惯性着陆。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

15 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

16 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 foes   

敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They steadily pushed their foes before them. 他们不停地追击敌人。
• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。

18 consultation   

n.咨询；商量；商议；会议

参考例句：

• The company has promised wide consultation on its expansion plans.该公司允诺就其扩展计划广泛征求意见。
• The scheme was developed in close consultation with the local community.该计划是在同当地社区密切磋商中逐渐形成的。

19 wasteful   

adj.（造成）浪费的，挥霍的

参考例句：

• It is a shame to be so wasteful.这样浪费太可惜了。
• Duties have been reassigned to avoid wasteful duplication of work.为避免重复劳动浪费资源，任务已经重新分派。

20 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。