美国国家公共电台 NPR Study Puts Puerto Rico Death Toll From Hurricane Maria Near 5,000

 

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We have a sense today for how deadly Hurricane Maria's impact on Puerto Rico truly was. A new study estimates the number of dead could be around 5,000, which is much higher than the official figure, which was 64. In a moment, we'll hear reaction to the new estimate from San Juan, Puerto Rico. But first, NPR's Richard Harris says the study highlights the long-lingering effects of the storm.

RICHARD HARRIS, BYLINE¹: The new figure is based on a door-to-door survey of about 3,300 randomly² selected households conducted in January. The researchers tallied³ the reported number of deaths, calculated a death rate and compared that with the death rate from the previous year. The result is a number somewhere between 800 and 8,500 excess deaths with 5,000 being a central figure. Caroline Buckee at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health is a lead author of the study.

CAROLINE BUCKEE: You know, one of the attractive elements of this type of approach is that it's quick and easy and very cost-effective.

HARRIS: She says it complements⁴ the official method, which usually relies on medical examiners who view bodies and determine the cause of death. That catches drownings, tree falls and other obvious storm-related deaths. The survey approach digs deeper and includes lingering causes. Satchit Balsari, an emergency physician and the other lead author, says surveys give a glimpse of the other causes.

SATCHIT BALSARI: There were a range of reasons offered that included just inability to prepare their medicines.

HARRIS: Vital medical equipment that required electricity also failed. Some people said they couldn't call 911.

BALSARI: Or they were unable to reach the health care facilities because roads were damaged or the facilities were closed or the doctors were unavailable.

HARRIS: The results are published online by the New England Journal of Medicine. One drawback of this study is it suggests a huge range, not a concrete number.

RAFAEL IRIZARRY: The reason there is a large uncertainty⁵ around that number is because that's a rare event.

HARRIS: Rafael Irizarry is a statistician at Harvard and a co-author of the study. The survey identified 38 deaths after the storm in its sample of 3,300 households. If by chance they had found half a dozen more or fewer, that would change the bottom line substantially. That said, the new statistics are broadly consistent with research based on death records by The New York Times in a recent academic study, Irizarry notes.

IRIZARRY: We have four estimates, and the current government count is the one that is an outlier in terms of being very low.

HARRIS: That's the one that shows 64 deaths. Alexis Santos, a demographer⁶ at Penn State University, conducted the previous scientific study and published his results online in November. He found about a thousand deaths for September and October. That's a shorter time period than covered in the Harvard study, which ran through December. He says the Puerto Rican government reacted to his findings by blocking access to government health data.

ALEXIS SANTOS: Under normal circumstances, I could have been given preliminary data already for death counts in 2017. That is not the case. Right now, they are just saying they're not going to share the information with anybody.

HARRIS: So for now it's a waiting game. Puerto Rico funded a study by researchers at the George Washington University. That is running far behind schedule and may now produce results this summer. Richard Harris, NPR News.

1 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

2 randomly   

adv.随便地，未加计划地

参考例句：

• Within the hot gas chamber, molecules are moving randomly in all directions. 在灼热的气体燃烧室内，分子在各个方向上作无规运动。 来自辞典例句
• Transformed cells are loosely attached, rounded and randomly oriented. 转化细胞则不大贴壁、圆缩并呈杂乱分布。 来自辞典例句

3 tallied   

v.计算，清点( tally的过去式和过去分词 )；加标签（或标记）于；（使）符合；（使）吻合

参考例句：

• The girl tallied them with her eyes for a moment. 新娘用目光把这些化妆品清点了一下。 来自教父部分
• His account of the accident tallied with hers. 他对事故的陈述和她的相吻合。 来自辞典例句

4 complements   

补充( complement的名词复数 )； 补足语； 补充物； 补集（数）

参考例句：

• His business skill complements her flair for design. 他的经营技巧和她的设计才能相辅相成。
• The isoseismal maps are valuable complements to the instrumental records. 等震线图是仪器记录有价值的补充资料。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网