Regional Bank Forecasts Stronger Growth for Developing Asian

 

By Heda Bayron

A new report says developing Asian economies are expected to enjoy stronger growth despite high oil prices. However, the report warns, a slowdown in China could hurt its neighbors.

The Asian Development Bank has raised its growth forecast for Asia's developing economies to seven percent this year. Earlier, the ADB had forecast growth at 6.8 percent.

Ifzal Ali, the bank's chief economist¹, says the upgrade was due to the strong economic performance in major industrial nations and robust² trade within Asia.

"We find that for the first time after the Asian financial crisis in Southeast Asia, business investments have picked up very significantly. In addition, we have continued buoyancy in household consumption."

Southeast Asia and East Asia, including China, are enjoying strong export demand, while petroleum-exporting Central Asian republics are gaining from high oil prices.

But economic growth for next year will slow down slightly to 6.2 percent mainly because of expected slower growth in India, Korea, Taiwan and China. Earlier, the ADB had expected growth of 6.7 percent in 2005.

But the non-profit development institution warns that persistently³ high oil prices could trigger inflation and that would curtail⁴ growth in oil dependent economies. Asia now imports more than 44 percent of its oil needs. Crude oil is trading at about 46 dollars a barrel.

The rosy⁵ economic projection⁶ also could change if China's economy significantly slows down. Mr. Ali says greater links between other Asian economies and China have made the rest of the region more vulnerable to changes in China's economic prospects⁷.

"If there were to be a hard landing in China in terms of (a) sharp decrease in the growth of fixed⁸ asset and investment, this would lead to a GDP growth of about six percent (for China) in 2005.This in turn would have a negative impact on exports from the rest of the region to China."

He says Hong Kong would be most affected⁹, followed by Taiwan, Korea and Singapore.

For South Asia, the bank says erratic¹⁰ monsoon¹¹ rains and severe flooding in some areas have hurt agricultural production. Moreover, Mr. Ali says there are signs of creeping inflation in India.

Heda Bayron, VOA news, Hong Kong.
注释：
industrial nation 工业国
consumption 消费
persistently 持久稳固的
vulnerable 易受攻击的
erratic 不稳定的
monsoon 雨季，季风

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

3 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

4 curtail   

vt.截短，缩短；削减

参考例句：

• The government hopes to curtail public spending.政府希望缩减公共事业开支。
• The minister had to curtail his visit.部长不得不缩短访问日期。

5 rosy   

adj.美好的，乐观的，玫瑰色的

参考例句：

• She got a new job and her life looks rosy.她找到一份新工作，生活看上去很美好。
• She always takes a rosy view of life.她总是对生活持乐观态度。

6 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

7 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

8 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

9 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

10 erratic   

adj.古怪的，反复无常的，不稳定的

参考例句：

• The old man had always been cranky and erratic.那老头儿性情古怪,反复无常。
• The erratic fluctuation of market prices is in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。

11 monsoon   

n.季雨，季风，大雨

参考例句：

• The monsoon rains started early this year.今年季雨降雨开始得早。
• The main climate type in that region is monsoon.那个地区主要以季风气候为主要气候类型。