Analysts Say Establishing Security

 

By Ed Warner

Nasyr Shansab, an Afghan of average size and amiable¹ disposition², was working at his desk at his home in Kabul when three strangers at it. They demanded $20,000 or else. Anticipating attack, Mr. Shansab moved first, striking one who toppled on another. He pushed the third out the door only to have him draw a revolver. Fortunately, a friend had just arrived and grabbed the assailant. All three intruders then fled their failed mission.

Mr. Shansab describes the aftermath: "We threw them out of the house and then after that, when it was reported to the police, nobody claimed that they knew them or who they were. I don't think anything happened, and the expectation is that nothing will happen because sometimes at least part of the police might be working together with those people."

Mr. Shansab, a leading Afghan businessman, says he now has a guard and a gun.

As this incident suggests, security remains³ uncertain in Kabul, even more so in the rest of the country. And security is the key, adds Mr. Shansab's son, Horace, who is making a film about a family living in Afghanistan under Taleban rule. Without personal safety assured, he says, businesses will not come to the country. It cannot be rebuilt if people fear for their lives.

Rule of law must take over Afghanistan, says Horace Shansab. "People must respect the law and fear the consequences of being unlawful," he says. "There must be an enforcer. There has to be an army that the central government can call up to go enforce the law. Otherwise, 99 percent of Afghanistan will be a lawless land, the wild east, and there will be a small bastion of security in Kabul."

But establishing this security is problematic, says Nasyr Shansab. Power still rests largely with the so-called warlords and they are not inclined to surrender it, despite the pleas of the central government.

"Nothing has changed in the internal power structure in Afghanistan," he says. "The warlords -- the people who had power after Communism fell in Afghanistan -- are still in power. Their word is still the law."

A law that is hard to break, says Edmund McWilliams, former U.S. special envoy⁴ to Afghanistan. "At the moment warlords are still largely in control of most of the countryside," he notes. "That means they are not going to respond to President Karzai's direction, but rather to their own financial interests and power interests."

One of the most powerful warlords sits undisturbed in Kabul. He is Defense⁵ Minister Mohammed Fahim, who controls what is considered the largest private militia⁶ in Afghanistan. It would be a major task to disarm⁷ him, says Nasyr Shansab. "As far as I can judge, the police, the secret police and most of the military units in Kabul and around Kabul are under his command and belong to his organizations and the Northern Alliance. From that point of view, he is the most powerful man in Kabul and the surroundings," he says.

The Karzai Government made a determined⁸ effort to remove one important warlord, Ismael Khan, in the province of Herat, which has close ties to Iran. The government claims success, but that is disputed by others who say Mr. Khan remains largely in control, enjoying the proceeds from cross-border trade with Iran.

Mr. McWilliams says Khan is more than a man with a gun. "He is a very significant warlord and something more of a political figure as well as a warlord because he does have some local backing in the Herat area. He has long roots there," he says.

Part of the warlords' power rests on the flourishing drug trade. Afghanistan is now said to supply 80% of the world's opium⁹ -- the nation's biggest industry and a source of livelihood¹⁰ for its farmers. U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad says Afghanistan has the potential of becoming a narco-state.

Edmund McWilliams thinks U.S. and NATO forces, with control of the roads, could reduce the drug traffic. But the will may be lacking. The West has other distractions¹¹, say analysts¹², and nation building in Afghanistan is not a top priority.

For focus, this is Ed Warner.

注释：
amiable 亲切的，和蔼可亲的
disposition 性情，脾气
assailant 攻击者
intruder 入侵者
aftermath 结果，后果
take over 接管
consequence 结果
bastion 堡垒
problematic 有问题的，有疑问的
surrender 交出，放弃
envoy 外交使节
proceeds 收益
flourishing 欣欣向荣的
opium 鸦片
livelihood 生计，谋生

1 amiable   

adj.和蔼可亲的，友善的，亲切的

参考例句：

• She was a very kind and amiable old woman.她是个善良和气的老太太。
• We have a very amiable companionship.我们之间存在一种友好的关系。

2 disposition   

n.性情，性格；意向，倾向；排列，部署

参考例句：

• He has made a good disposition of his property.他已对财产作了妥善处理。
• He has a cheerful disposition.他性情开朗。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 envoy   

n.使节，使者，代表，公使

参考例句：

• Their envoy showed no sign of responding to our proposals.他们的代表对我方的提议毫无回应的迹象。
• The government has not yet appointed an envoy to the area.政府尚未向这一地区派过外交官。

5 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

6 militia   

n.民兵，民兵组织

参考例句：

• First came the PLA men,then the people's militia.人民解放军走在前面，其次是民兵。
• There's a building guarded by the local militia at the corner of the street.街道拐角处有一幢由当地民兵团守卫的大楼。

7 disarm   

v.解除武装，回复平常的编制，缓和

参考例句：

• The world has waited 12 years for Iraq to disarm. 全世界等待伊拉克解除武装已有12年之久。
• He has rejected every peaceful opportunity offered to him to disarm.他已经拒绝了所有能和平缴械的机会。

8 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

9 opium   

n.鸦片；adj.鸦片的

参考例句：

• That man gave her a dose of opium.那男人给了她一剂鸦片。
• Opium is classed under the head of narcotic.鸦片是归入麻醉剂一类的东西。

10 livelihood   

n.生计，谋生之道

参考例句：

• Appropriate arrangements will be made for their work and livelihood.他们的工作和生活会得到妥善安排。
• My father gained a bare livelihood of family by his own hands.父亲靠自己的双手勉强维持家计。

11 distractions   

n.使人分心的事[人]( distraction的名词复数 )；娱乐，消遣；心烦意乱；精神错乱

参考例句：

• I find it hard to work at home because there are too many distractions. 我发觉在家里工作很难，因为使人分心的事太多。
• There are too many distractions here to work properly. 这里叫人分心的事太多，使人无法好好工作。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。