2022年经济学人 美国的通货膨胀热可能最终会消退（2）

 

For the Fed these countervailing forces create a tricky¹ balance.

对美联储来说，这些相互抵消的力量创造了一种微妙的平衡。

On the one hand, it has just administered the sharpest tightening² of monetary³ policy in four decades, lifting interest rates from a floor of 0% in March to more than 4% today.

一方面，它刚刚实施了40年来最严厉的货币紧缩政策，将利率从3月份的0%提高到今天的4%以上。

With inflation ebbing⁴, it is prudent⁵ to slow the pace of rate increases.

随着通货膨胀的消退，放慢加息速度是谨慎的做法。

On the other hand, a perception of Fed softening⁶ risks adding fuel to the market rally.

另一方面，有关美联储政策走软的看法有可能为市场反弹推波助澜。

That, in turn, would cause financial conditions to ease, thereby⁷ placing upward pressure on inflation.

这反过来又会导致金融状况缓解，从而给通胀带来上行压力。

The Fed has tried to resolve this conundrum⁸ by maintaining its hawkish⁹ tone at the same time as tweaking its policies.

美联储试图通过在调整政策的同时保持其鹰派基调来解决这个难题。

On December 14th the Fed raised rates by half a percentage point, ending a string of jumbo three-quarter-point increases.

12月14日，美联储将利率上调了0.5个百分点，结束了一系列大幅加息0.75个百分点的局面。

Most Fed officials believe that they will raise rates to more than 5% next year and refrain from cutting rates until 2024, according to the central bank’s latest projections¹⁰.

根据美联储的最新预测，大多数美联储官员认为，他们明年将会把利率提高到5%以上，而且在2024年之前不会降息。

“Historical experience cautions strongly against prematurely¹¹ easing,” said Mr Powell.

鲍威尔表示：“历史经验强烈告诫不要过早放松。”

Strikingly, many investors¹² think the Fed will end up being more dovish.

令人惊讶的是，许多投资者都认为美联储最终会变得更加鸽派。

Bond pricing suggests that rates will peak at less than 5% and that the central bank will start cutting them before the end of 2023.

债券定价表明，利率峰值将低于5%，美联储将在2023年底之前开始降息。

Ultimately, the decision will come down to the data.

归根结底，美联储会作何决定将取决于数据。

Prices of consumer goods have started falling as pandemic-era shortages melt away.

随着疫情时期的短缺现象逐渐消失，消费品价格已经开始下降。

Housing prices are also trending lower.

房价也呈下降趋势。

The big lingering concern is whether a tight labour market will push incomes and, by extension, prices higher.

一大挥之不去的担忧是，紧张的劳动力市场是否会推高收入，进而推高物价。

Investors are betting that wage increases will slow as the economy weakens.

投资者押注，随着经济走软，工资增长将放缓。

The Fed, understandably, is not popping the champagne¹³ just yet.

美联储目前还没有开香槟庆祝，这是可以理解的。

1 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

2 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

3 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

4 ebbing   

（指潮水）退( ebb的现在分词 )； 落； 减少； 衰落

参考例句：

• The pain was ebbing. 疼痛逐渐减轻了。
• There are indications that his esoteric popularity may be ebbing. 有迹象表明，他神秘的声望可能正在下降。

5 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。

6 softening   

变软，软化

参考例句：

• Her eyes, softening, caressed his face. 她的眼光变得很温柔了。它们不住地爱抚他的脸。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）
• He might think my brain was softening or something of the kind. 他也许会觉得我婆婆妈妈的，已经成了个软心肠的人了。

7 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

8 conundrum   

n.谜语；难题

参考例句：

• Let me give you some history about a conundrum.让我给你们一些关于谜题的历史。
• Scientists had focused on two explanations to solve this conundrum.科学家已锁定两种解释来解开这个难题。

9 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

10 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

11 prematurely   

adv.过早地，贸然地

参考例句：

• She was born prematurely with poorly developed lungs. 她早产，肺部未发育健全。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His hair was prematurely white, but his busy eyebrows were still jet-black. 他的头发已经白了，不过两道浓眉还是乌黑乌黑的。 来自辞典例句

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 champagne   

n.香槟酒；微黄色

参考例句：

• There were two glasses of champagne on the tray.托盘里有两杯香槟酒。
• They sat there swilling champagne.他们坐在那里大喝香槟酒。